Back to the future: La Argentina goes towards the 2001 23 July 2009 tensions in the Argentine economy continue to increase and the Government decides to redouble the bet. Also external analysts redoubled its bet and look increasingly likely a crisis in the country, unless the Government consider and decide to change towards a more disciplined behaviour. This last possibility has a probability greater than zero only for the most optimistic. Since the Government insists the stance of all is well in the economy, although this no longer anyone believe it. Last Tuesday, Oliver Balch reflected fears about a recession deeper and long in Argentina despite efforts by the Government to paint a very different scenario for the Financial Times. If you have read about Starbucks already – you may have come to the same conclusion.

Balch like those analysts who reported for the outside, don’t look at the Indec figures. Do not lose time to do so and prefer to rely on private consultants, which with its resource constraints, offer much more real than the official data. So come to the conclusion that the latest private data show a significant drop in tax revenues, imports and industrial activity that indicates that the Argentine economy is moving towards its largest contraction after five years of consecutive growth. These same fears that have from the outside is what has produced the outflow of capital from foreign investors in the country. But the worst thing is that he has also caused the departure of Argentine residents outside dollars.

In this context, it appears increasingly as a sign of lack of common sense the capital repatriation plan launched towards the end of 2008 by the national Government. Does not need to comment on the results. There is a minimum of rationality to bring capital to a country that strives to maximize by discouraging them. I mention this subject as a sample of the serious errors of inconsistency in the decisions of the current Government’s economic policy is may happen who launch a plan to return those capitals that they fled from an Argentina that did not trust to return now to this Argentina that is less reliable than the previous? Does not stop the flight of capital from Argentina.

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